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2Classification · Credit Risk

Credit Risk Scoring

Which borrowers will default within 12 months?

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A real-world example

Which borrowers will default within 12 months?

US banks charge off $50B+ in consumer loans annually. Traditional scorecards rely on bureau scores and static application data, missing dynamic behavioral signals like changing payment patterns across multiple credit lines, rising utilization on revolving accounts, and transaction velocity shifts. A mid-size lender with a $20B portfolio estimated that a 10% improvement in default prediction would save $80-120M per year in charge-off losses while approving 5% more creditworthy borrowers currently declined by blunt FICO cutoffs.

How KumoRFM solves this

Relational intelligence built for banking and financial data

Kumo connects loan applications, payment histories, account balances, transaction patterns, and bureau data into a unified relational graph. The model discovers that Borrower B-2041 has a 740 FICO but declining payment consistency across three revolving accounts, rising cash-advance frequency, and a new pattern of minimum-only payments. These cross-table behavioral signals produce a more accurate probability-of-default score than any single-table logistic regression, surfacing risk 3-6 months before a traditional model would flag it.

From data to predictions

See the full pipeline in action

Connect your tables, write a PQL query, and get predictions with built-in explainability — all in minutes, not months.

1

Your data

The relational tables Kumo learns from

BORROWERS

borrower_idfico_scoreincomeemployment_yearsdti_ratio
B-2041740$95,0006.20.34
B-2087680$62,0003.10.41
B-2103790$142,00014.50.22

LOANS

loan_idborrower_idtypeprincipalrateorigination_date
L-8001B-2041Auto$32,0005.9%2024-03-15
L-8002B-2087Personal$15,00011.2%2024-07-22
L-8003B-2103Mortgage$450,0006.5%2023-11-01

PAYMENTS

payment_idloan_idamountdays_latetimestamp
P-001L-8001$542.1802025-08-01
P-002L-8001$542.18122025-09-01
P-003L-8002$310.0002025-09-01

CREDIT_LINES

line_idborrower_idtypelimitbalancemin_payment_only
CL-01B-2041Credit Card$15,000$13,200True
CL-02B-2041HELOC$50,000$42,000False
CL-03B-2087Credit Card$8,000$3,100False
2

Write your PQL query

Describe what to predict in 2–3 lines — Kumo handles the rest

PQL
PREDICT BOOL(LOANS.STATUS = 'default', 0, 12, months)
FOR EACH BORROWERS.BORROWER_ID
WHERE LOANS.STATUS = 'active'
3

Prediction output

Every entity gets a score, updated continuously

BORROWER_IDFICOKUMO_PD_SCORETRADITIONAL_PDRISK_BAND
B-20417400.380.06Elevated
B-20876800.220.18Moderate
B-21037900.030.02Low
4

Understand why

Every prediction includes feature attributions — no black boxes

Borrower B-2041 (FICO 740)

Predicted: 38% probability of default within 12 months

Top contributing features

Credit card utilization trend

88% and rising

29% attribution

Minimum-only payment pattern

5 of 6 months

24% attribution

Late payment emergence (auto loan)

12 days

20% attribution

Cash advance frequency increase

+300%

16% attribution

Cross-account balance growth

+$18K in 6mo

11% attribution

Feature attributions are computed automatically for every prediction. No separate tooling required. Learn more about Kumo explainability

Bottom line: Catch high-FICO borrowers showing early distress signals and reduce charge-off losses by $80-120M annually on a $20B portfolio while safely approving 5% more good borrowers.

Topics covered

credit risk AIloan default predictionborrower risk modelinggraph neural network creditKumoRFMcredit scoring machine learningprobability of defaultrelational deep learning lendingcredit risk analyticsPD model banking

One Platform. One Model. Predict Instantly.

KumoRFM

Relational Foundation Model

Turn structured relational data into predictions in seconds. KumoRFM delivers zero-shot predictions that rival months of traditional data science. No training, feature engineering, or infrastructure required. Just connect your data and start predicting.

For critical use cases, fine-tune KumoRFM on your data using the Kumo platform and Data Science Agent for 30%+ higher accuracy than traditional models.

Book a demo and get a free trial of the full platform: data science agent, fine-tune capabilities, and forward-deployed engineer support.